Cabo Weather This Week: 28 September to 4 October 2026

Short answer: As of 5:00 PM Cabo time on Tuesday 29 September, no official watch or warning is listed for Los Cabos, but NHC says swells from Rachel will reach the Baja California Peninsula through the end of the week and are "likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions." SMN No. 272 (29 September) lists showers with locally heavy rain for southern Baja California Sur and gusty wind and high waves from Thursday 1 to Saturday 3 October, so keep water days flexible and follow the beach flags.

New advisories: our live Cabo weather and hurricane update.

We are not meteorologists. For forecasts, follow the National Hurricane Center and Mexico's SMN.

What the official outlooks say

• NHC advisories, Tuesday 2:00 PM Cabo time: none of the advisories for Polo, Rachel or Nineteen-E lists a watch or warning for Baja California Sur. NHC's Polo Advisory 37 warned of "life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding" from Polo's swells along portions of the coast of the Baja California peninsula. NHC's Rachel Advisory 11 says Rachel is "forecast to become a hurricane tonight, and major hurricane by Thursday," and that its swells will "spread northward through the end of the week." At 5:00 PM Cabo time, Intermediate Advisory 11A added that they will "spread northward along the coast of west-central Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula through the end of the week." For Rachel's official track and cone, see NHC's Rachel graphics.
• NHC 7-day outlook, Tuesday 5:00 PM Cabo time: the Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook says "An area of low pressure could form late this weekend or early next week south of the southern coast of Mexico," with a formation chance of "low...near 0 percent" through 48 hours and "low...20 percent" through 7 days.
• SMN extended forecast No. 272 (issued 14:00 Mexico City time, 29 September): through 7:00 AM Cabo time Wednesday, SMN lists heavy rain with locally very heavy rain (50 to 75 mm) in central Baja California Sur, and gusts of 50 to 70 km/h statewide. For Wednesday 30 September to Thursday 1 October, it lists intervals of showers (5 to 25 mm) for Baja California Sur. For Thursday 1 to Saturday 3 October, it says Rachel's circulation brings a chance of locally heavy rain in southern Baja California Sur, lists showers with locally heavy rain (25 to 50 mm) there, gusts of up to 70 km/h for Baja California Sur, and waves of 3.0 to 5.0 meters along the coast of Baja California Sur.
• Los Cabos government: on 27 September, lifeguards reported black flags, meaning beaches closed, in Cabo San Lucas and San José del Cabo.

What it means for boats, beaches and flights

Boats and fishing. The port captain decides when small boats can go out. Our policy: "If we or the captain cancel for weather or safety reasons, you receive a full refund or a free reschedule, no matter the timing."

Beaches. On 25 September, Los Cabos Protección Civil warned that in strong surf, waves can suddenly reach areas that look safe and knock people down or drag them away, so staying out of the water does not remove the danger. It asks everyone to avoid the beach while the strong surf lasts, even to walk on the sand, to follow lifeguards, and to call 911 in an emergency.

Flights. Your airline decides whether a flight runs. Send us any new time and we help move your transfer.

What to do this week

1. Read the latest NHC advisories before each boat day. 2. Check the beach flags before every swim, and stay off the beach while black flags are up. 3. Save our WhatsApp and your booking reference. 4. Trips soon: use our checklist.

How to reach us

Message our concierge on WhatsApp with your booking reference. See our hurricane season guide.

Frequently asked questions

Is there a hurricane warning for Cabo this week?

In the NHC advisories issued at 5:00 PM Cabo time on 29 September 2026, no watch or warning is listed for Baja California Sur. Check NHC and SMN for each new advisory.

Will boats run in Cabo this week?

The port captain decides. If we or the captain cancel for weather or safety reasons, you receive a full refund or a free reschedule, no matter the timing.

Is it safe to swim in Cabo this week?

NHC's 5:00 PM Rachel advisory (29 September) says its swells will reach the Baja California Peninsula through the end of the week and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and SMN No. 272 (29 September) lists waves of 3.0 to 5.0 meters along the coast of Baja California Sur from 1 to 3 October. Follow the flags and lifeguards.